Japan "Lost Decades" stress test — 1990–2020

VAS / VGS / JGB portfolio · Waterfall Rebalancing Strategy

The scenario: Applying 1990–2020 Japanese conditions to your 30/40/30 portfolio. It utilizes a "Buy the Laggard" algorithm: surplus income tops up the cash buffer first, then buys whichever asset class has fallen furthest below its target percentage.

Adjust your portfolio settings

Starting portfolio

$2.4M

Initial annual spend

$80k

Cash buffer (BILL ETF)

$240k

Asset allocation — must total 100%

Total: 100%

VASAustralian shares

30%

VGSInternational shares

40%

JGBJapanese bonds

30%

Portfolio total value 1990–2020 (incl. cash buffer)

Your portfolio (Rebalancing) Pure Nikkei-only reference Starting value

Annual spend actually taken ($'000)

Cash buffer balance over time ($'000)

Year-by-year detail

Year	Phase	VAS ret.	VGS ret.	JGB ret.	Portfolio value	ETF distributions	Cash buffer	Total income	Spend taken	Reinvested (Laggard)	Tax paid